For the ARAIMFUSE final milestone, the cost-benefit analysis was delivered. This analysis studies the rate of penetration of ARAIM solutions in the different sectors, considering three different types of scenarios (1:Certified, 2:Certified but not mandatory and 3:Certified and mandatory).
Another important part of the CBA was the computation of the Net Present Value (Discounted Benefits – Discounted Costs) per sector. After computing it, the main conclusions per sector are:
Rail
- Equipment manufacturers: NPV expected to break even as costs are passed-on to the end-users and therefore recuperated as revenues.
- Component and receiver manufacturers: will benefit the most from the revenues from the sales of ARAIM-enabled receivers.
- End-users: the negative value is due to the choice of calculating the potential benefits for these stakeholders following a conservative approach based on the interested but “cautious” feedback from rail stakeholders on the introduction of ARAIM in the sector.
Category (timeframe 2024-2040) | Components & Receivers manufacturers (k €) | Equipment manufacturers (k €) | End-users (k €) | All stakeholders (k €) |
Net Present Value – Scenario 1 | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. | N.A. |
Net Present Value – Scenario 2 | 2.339 | – | 71.350 | 69.012 |
Net Present Value – Scenario 3 | 1.587 | – | 115.611 | 114.025 |
Maritime
- Equipment manufacturers: NPV expected to break even.
- Component and receiver manufacturers: the comparative advantage of having ARAIM added on to their offering would lead to increased sales and revenue, ultimately covering the cost of development and certification.
- End-users: would benefit most from the obligation of the use of ARAIM through an expected reduction in navigational incidents.
Category (timeframe 2024-2040) | Components & Receivers manufacturers (k €) | Equipment manufacturers (k €) | End-users (k €) | All stakeholders (k €) |
Net Present Value – Scenario 1 | 43.180 | – | – 5.787 | 37.393 |
Net Present Value – Scenario 2 | 43.180 | – | – 5.699 | 37.482 |
Net Present Value – Scenario 3 | 258.009 | – | – 51.942 | 206.066 |
UAVs
- Equipment manufacturers: NPV is slightly negative as their revenues have been spread over 10 years in the calculations, allowing a small gap with the cost due to the discount factor used to calculate the NPV.
- Component and receiver manufacturers: theoretically reach breakeven as well, for the same reason as equipment manufacturers.
- End-users: benefits of the introduction of ARAIM-enabled receivers were calculated regarding safety-related and cost savings revenues for the parcel delivery market.
Category (timeframe 2024-2040) | Components & Receivers manufacturers (k €) | Equipment manufacturers (k €) | End-users (k €) | All stakeholders (k €) |
Net Present Value – Scenario 1 | -3.538 | -3.538 | 1.087.244 | 1.080.168 |
Net Present Value – Scenario 2 | -1.916 | -1.916 | 1.253.088 | 1.249.256 |
Net Present Value – Scenario 3 | -1.916 | -1.916 | 1.854.537 | 1.850.705 |